A Look at Where KC Could Finish

Sporting KC is still looking to clinch a playoff berth heading into the final game of the regular season next Sunday at home against the San Jose Earthquakes. A win and Sporting Kansas City book their place in the playoffs, a draw or a loss and Kansas City can still get in, but will be forced to scoreboard watch and hope other results don't go against Kansas City. At this point though Kansas City can still finish anywhere from fourth to seventh in the West. Here's a quick look at how Kansas City could finish in each of those spots.

Fourth Place

Win over San Jose AND
Salt Lake and Seattle draw AND
Portland loss, draw or win by the same amount (or less) as Kansas City beats San Jose against Vancouver

That string of results would see Kansas City finish tied with at least Salt Lake, and potentially Portland as well if the Timbers were to beat Vancouver on the road. If Portland win in this scenario, all three teams would be tied on 47 points, with Salt Lake being sixth because they'd have fewer wins (currently all have 12), while Portland would finish fifth because KC would have a better goal difference (currently -1 to -2). In that scenario Seattle would be out of the playoffs. If Portland doesn't win they are out of the playoffs instead with Seattle finishing in the sixth spot, RSL fifth, and KC still fourth.

Obviously this is the favored result KC wants as it would give them a home game against the fifth seeded team which would be either Portland or Salt Lake.

Fifth place

Win over San Jose AND
Salt Lake or Seattle win AND
Portland loss, draw or win by the same amount (or less) as Kansas City beats San Jose against Vancouver

This string of results would see the winner of the Salt Lake and Seattle game take fourth place in the West on 49 points (RSL) or 48 points (Seattle). KC would finish fifth on 47 points beating out Portland if they win on goal difference again, or without tiebreakers if the Timbers lose or draw. If Portland wins the loser of Salt Lake and Seattle would miss out on the playoffs, If Portland loses or draws they would be out.

This would probably seem to be the most likely scenario based on form this season with Seattle winning and Portland losing or drawing, putting KC into a match up on the road at the Sounders, where Sporting started their season.

OR

Win over San Jose AND
Salt Lake and Seattle draw AND
Portland beat Vancouver by more than KC beat San Jose

In this scenario KC, Salt Lake, and Portland would again all finished tied on 47 points. Like before, Salt Lake would finish sixth because they would have fewer wins than KC and Portland. KC would finish in fifth because Portland would overturn KC's goal difference advantage in this position and finish in fourth. That'd mean a rematch of last year's wild card game at Providence Park.

Sixth place

Win over San Jose AND
Salt Lake or Seattle win AND
Portland beats Vancouver by more than KC beat San Jose

A bit of a combination of the fifth place scenarios, Salt Lake or Seattle would take fourth place staying ahead of KC and Portland who would be tied on 47 points. Portland would again overturn the goal difference advantage KC has and drop them to sixth. The loser of RSL and Seattle would be out.

OR

Draw with San Jose AND
Any result in Salt Lake vs Seattle AND
Portland draw or lose at Vancouver

In this scenario KC would finish with 45 points, potentially level with Seattle on points, but the Sounders win the first tiebreaker, having 13 wins already to KC's 12. The winner of Salt Lake and Seattle would then host the other in the wild card game while KC would take on the LA Galaxy.

OR

KC lose to San Jose AND
Any result in Salt Lake vs Seattle AND
Portland lose to Vancouver by as much or more than KC does

The goal difference tie breaker again comes into play as a loss could still see Kansas City qualify for the playoffs if the Timbers lose by as much or more than KC were to lose to San Jose.

Seventh place

Draw with San Jose
Any result in Salt Lake vs Seattle
Portland defeat Vancouver

In this scenario Portland leaps over Kansas City, while the best KC could do is finish on 45 points, where they'd lose the tiebreaker with the Sounders if Seattle were to lose at home.

OR

KC lose to San Jose
Any result in Salt Lake vs Seattle
Portland win, draw, or lose by less than KC loses

In this scenario it all comes down to what happens at BC Place between Vancouver and Portland. If KC loses and Portland losses by less, they move ahead of KC on goal difference, winning that tiebreaker, and obviously if KC lose and Portland get any sort of result they move ahead of KC, ending KC's run of playoff appearances.

In the end, things are very simple for Kansas City, win and you're in. If you can't get the win then you are reliant on the results of others to help you punch your playoff ticket. Hoping on the team with the worst home record in the league (Vancouver) to beat the team with the worst road record in the league (Portland) isn't something that I'd want to be hoping for.